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How rouble effects retail market participants

This year looks set to be the worst year for retail since the crisis of 2008-2009, when the rouble declined peak to trough by 58% against the US Dollar and 37% against the Euro and inflation reached 15.8% YoY in July 2008. This time the situation shares many similarities, with the only caveat being that given this is a Russian problem, rather than a global one, the period of dislocation is likely to be more prolonged. In our view, this prolonged period of economic stress, whilst providing significant risks for market participants will at the same time opens up some opportunities for well-positioned retailers and investors and developers with a long term view.

In this brief note we try to estimate the financial impact on retailers over the course of the last 9 months of the rouble depreciation. We also try to foresee how prices will change, how the consumer market will react to the new pricing reality and how retailers and landlords will respond.

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