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Moscow, 12 October, 2016 – According to JLL, in Q3 the overall vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centres has increased from 8% to 8.5%. Taking into account a number of projects announced for completion in Q4 and the ongoing rotation of tenants, JLL analysts expect the vacancy rate to reach 9% by the end of 2016.
“Such an increase in vacant space is primarily driven by new deliveries. About 70% of the available space on the market is located in shopping centres commissioned since 2014. In some newly opened malls the vacancy rate reaches 50-60%. Yet, there are examples of objects, which entered the market with high occupancy. The result usually depends on location and competition in a catchment area.” – Tatyana Malyanova, Head of Shopping Centre Agency, JLL, Russia & CIS, comments. – “It is worth mentioning that the vacancy rate in key shopping centres has decreased from 1% to 0.7% in Q3. These centres remain the most stable and attractive for tenants. We expect that available space in such schemes will remain scarce in the near future.”
According to JLL estimates, the volume of new retail supply in Moscow in 9M 2015 was 370,200 sq m*, 4% down YoY. About 190,200 sq m of quality shopping centres were completed in Q3 2016, which is four times higher than in the same period of last year. The number combines Oceania SC (60,000 sq m), Khorosho! (53,000 sq m), Kosino Park (39,000 sq m) and Metropolis Phase 2 (38,200 sq m).
The Moscow quality shopping centre supply is likely to increase by 501,000 sq m this year (down 11% YoY). As a result, Moscow total shopping centre stock will exceed 5m sq m by the end of 2016.
In 2017, JLL experts anticipate a 40% fall in completions, with only 300,400 sq m coming to the market. The downward trend in new retail space completions has been observed since 2014 due to economic slowdown. Some retail projects have been suspended, some have reduced their planned capacity. A similar situation was observed in 2009-2013, when shopping centre completions in Moscow decreased significantly.
Moscow Shopping Centre CompletionsSource: JLL
“International retailers on the Russian market remain active. Those with local partners and financing continue to enter. According to our calculations, 11 new brands have appeared on the market in Q3 2016, including Swiss cosmetics Jouvence Eternelle in Afimall City, British fashion brands L.K.Bennett in Metropolis and Jil Sander Navy in St. Petersburg on Nevskiy Avenue. Only American Magnolia Bakery café has left the Russian market this year.” –
Maria Shpakova, Retail Market Analyst, JLL, Russia & CIS, notes.
Retailers on the Russian Market: Entries and Exits
* This and other figures refer to gross leasing area (GLA).
JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. A Fortune 500 company with annual fee revenue of $5.2 billion and gross revenue of $6.0 billion, JLL has more than 280 corporate offices, operates in more than 80 countries and has a global workforce of more than 60,000. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services for a property portfolio of 4.0 billion square feet, or 372 million square meters, and completed $138 billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in 2015. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $59.1 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.
In Russia and CIS JLL has offices in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kiev. JLL, Russia & CIS was voted Consultant of the Year in 2004, 2006-2016 at the Commercial Real Estate Awards, Moscow; Consultant of the Year at the Commercial Real Estate Awards 2009, 2016, St. Petersburg; Consultant of the Year at the RCSC Awards in 2015.
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